---
title: "Geographic Convergence Detection"
description: "Multi-event clustering analysis that detects when independent data streams converge on the same geographic area, providing early warning of significant events."
---
One of the most valuable intelligence signals is when **multiple independent data streams converge on the same geographic area**. This often precedes significant events.

## How It Works

The system maintains a real-time grid of geographic cells (1° x 1° resolution). Each cell tracks four event types:

| Event Type | Source | Detection Method |
|------------|--------|-----------------|
| **Protests** | ACLED/GDELT | Direct geolocation |
| **Military Flights** | OpenSky | ADS-B position |
| **Naval Vessels** | AIS stream | Ship position |
| **Earthquakes** | USGS | Epicenter location |

When **3 or more different event types** occur within the same cell during a 24-hour window, a **convergence alert** is generated.

## Convergence Scoring

```
type_score = event_types × 25      # Max 100 (4 types)
count_boost = min(25, total_events × 2)
convergence_score = min(100, type_score + count_boost)
```

## Alert Thresholds

The detector only emits convergence alerts after **3+ distinct event types** are
present in a cell. The Strategic Risk alert priority layer then classifies the
alert using both type diversity and score:

| Types Converging | Score Range | Alert Priority |
|-----------------|-------------|----------------|
| **4 types** | 100 | Critical |
| **3 types** with high event count | 90-100 | Critical |
| **3 types** with lower event count | 81-89 | High |

The shared priority helper still has a defensive `medium` branch for scores
`>=50`, but current detector output does not reach it because emitted alerts
must already have at least 3 event types.

## Example Scenarios

**Taiwan Strait Buildup**

- Cell: `25°N, 121°E`
- Events: Military flights (3), Naval vessels (2), Protests (1)
- Score: 75 + 12 = 87
- Priority: High
- Signal: "Geographic Convergence (3 types) - military flights, naval vessels, protests"

**Middle East Flashpoint**

- Cell: `32°N, 35°E`
- Events: Military flights (5), Protests (8), Earthquake (1)
- Score: 75 + 25 = 100 (Critical)
- Priority: Critical
- Signal: Multiple activity streams converging on region

## Why This Matters

Individual data points are often noise. But when **protests break out, military assets reposition, and seismic monitors detect anomalies** in the same location simultaneously, it warrants attention, regardless of whether any single source is reporting a crisis.
